One week in: How the German supermarket sector reacted to Lidl’s price move
On 27 May, Lidl launched a wide-reaching price reduction campaign across its German stores—prompting an immediate and widespread response from competitors.
Thanks to near real-time behavioural data, we were able to analyse the first measurable effects of this pricing wave just one week after it began. These early signals provide valuable insight into how German shoppers responded—and how effectively competitors moved to defend their position.
- ALDI NORD and ALDI SUD announced permanent price cuts on hundreds of products.
- Edeka matched Lidl’s reductions on comparable private label items.
- Rewe and Penny also joined in, promising exact price parity.
- Kaufland, Lidl’s sister chain, stated it adjusted prices within hours.
What followed was an intense, sector-wide pricing response—testing brand loyalty and price perception.
First Signs of Impact
Our analysis of visit data for the week of 26 May to 1 June reveals some surprising early effects.
Lidl’s visit share dropped slightly, from 16.4% the week prior to 16.1% post-launch.
Rather than gaining traffic, Lidl appears to have lost visits—primarily to ALDI NORD, ALDI SUD, and Edeka. These competitors responded promptly and clearly, reinforcing their value propositions in the minds of price-sensitive shoppers.
For Lidl’s core audience, ALDI emerged as the most natural alternative—with a similar format and longstanding reputation as a price leader.
Price alone isn’t the strategy
These early insights show that in a hyper-competitive environment like German grocery retail, price cuts alone don’t guarantee traffic. Speed, clarity, and message delivery all play critical roles.
This case shows that a first-mover advantage isn’t guaranteed. In fast-moving markets like German grocery retail, it’s often the speed and clarity of the response that defines who actually benefits.
What’s next?
This price war is still unfolding, and it’s clear that the competitive dynamics will continue to shift. For retailers, staying ahead will depend on how quickly they can interpret shopper behaviour and adjust their strategies accordingly.