Carnival redistributes supermarket visits in NRW

Major hard discounters lose visit share

At total market level, the largest hard discounters — ALDI Nord, ALDI Sud and Lidl — all recorded declines in visit share during the carnival period.

In contrast, Netto Marken-Discount and Penny gained considerable momentum. REWE and Kaufland also strengthened their positions, while Edeka recorded moderate growth. Edeka Center, however, experienced more noticeable pressure.

Carnival therefore did not favour a single retail format. Instead, it triggered measurable shifts in competitive positioning within the discount segment while also benefiting selected full-service and large-format players.

Competitive switching intensifies

Visit transfer analysis confirms that competitive switching between supermarket banners played a central role during the campaign period.

Both ALDI Nord and ALDI Sud lost visits to multiple competitors, particularly Netto Marken-Discount, Penny, REWE and Kaufland. Lidl also saw customers move towards these retailers.

Netto Marken-Discount, Penny, REWE and Kaufland consistently appear on the gaining side of visit transfers.

These patterns highlight how seasonal peaks can amplify inter-brand switching dynamics within grocery retail.

Visit frequency increases during carnival

Average visit frequency increased across nearly all major supermarket chains during the campaign period.

REWE recorded the highest visit frequency among the analysed retailers, reinforcing its strong primary position in NRW. Most competitors also saw modest frequency uplifts compared to the reference period.

The carnival period was therefore characterised by both higher shopping intensity and meaningful redistribution of visits.

Multi-store dynamics during the campaign period

Combiner analysis shows substantial cross-shopping between banners during carnival.

High overlap between combinations such as REWE and ALDI Sud, Lidl and Kaufland, Lidl and Penny, and REWE and Penny demonstrates the importance of understanding multi-store behaviour and shopper repertoires.

Performance during seasonal peaks is influenced not only by individual visit share but also by how retailers overlap within consumer shopping patterns.

Loyalty structure and customer mix

Loyalty segmentation reveals structural differences between retailers.

In this analysis:

• Primary loyals dedicate 50% or more of their total supermarket visits to one retailer during the measured period.
• Secondary loyals dedicate between 25% and 49%.
• Occasional visitors account for less than 25%.

REWE shows the strongest share of primary loyal customers. ALDI Nord, ALDI Sud and Edeka maintain relatively balanced loyalty profiles. Kaufland, Netto Marken-Discount and particularly Penny rely more heavily on occasional visitors.

These differences in loyalty composition help explain how retailers perform during periods of intensified competitive switching.