^{1. The fast food market follows health predictions: more chicken on the menu}

Chicken and less alcohol: the 2 main food trends of 2024 according to De Telegraaf

Consumers in Belgium are becoming increasingly health-conscious, leading to a growing demand for chicken and plant-based alternatives. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, even in the fast food market.

We can therefore expect to see more chicken burgers, veggie burgers and vegetarian croquettes on menus. Just think of existing examples such as the McPlant, the Veggie Double Whopper and the McKroket, all without meat obviously.

Of course, not only vegetarian alternatives are popular. Chicken is also doing incredibly well. KFC, for example, has had some decent years. Similar chains like Belchicken are doing well and opened a lot of new locations last year. Our prediction is that there will not only be more chicken on the menu, but also on the map.

^{2. All supermarket chains lose in March, except one}

Last year, everyone but Delhaize seemed to be a winner in Belgium. This year, things seem to be different.

Specifically for Delhaize Supermarkets, we expect a rise in March compared to the previous year. Considering the strikes of March and April 2023, this isn't an illogical result in a year-on-year analysis. For their market competitors, the opposite is true: they will each record a loss.

For almost all supermarket chains, it's a challenge to conduct a "fair" analysis of their brand evolution, taking into account the extraordinary circumstances of last year. The solution must be found in making a comparison with the market, rather than solely focusing on the performance of their own brand.

^{3. A first-time loss for action}

Action has had quite a few strong years, no doubt about it. Whether that growth is sustainable, is something we doubt. In countries like Belgium and particularly the Netherlands, where they have been active for exactly 30 years since last year, growth is gradually saturating.

The competition has learned a lot from Action and is finally able to put up a fight. Wibra, for instance, is back and grabbing a slice of Action's pie with many new store openings.

Additionally, new competitors are emerging, like TEDi which opened its first store in Tongeren and Bilzen. Moreover, the ‘Action competitor’ is soon opening a branch in Oudenaarde. Besides these physically present players, there are also online players like Temu and AliExpress to consider.

Existing brands are therefore creating a barrier and increasingly copying the discount retailer's tricks... probably with success for the first time in 2024.

^{4. Finally, proof that a better shopping experience really works}

Consumers are increasingly seeking a positive shopping experience. Retailers who capitalize on this will reap the benefits in 2024.

Chains that invest in their stores are rewarded with curious newcomers or returnees and more frequent loyal visitors. A large part continues to return even after that (re)acquaintance. Especially those living nearby who are easily swayed.

A significantly revamped, pleasant store leads to "location loyalty," the allegiance to a "nearby store." This type of loyalty often even breaks through "brand loyalty." Those who previously bypassed a store are invited to take a look and are often pleasantly surprised.

In 2024, shoppers leave their nearby store behind for a better shopping experience. New experiences go hand in hand with convenience and are becoming more important than the brand attributes they were so fond of in 2023.^‍

^{5. Never So Little Paper, Never Such High Impact}

The paper leaflet is a traditional marketing tool for retailers, although the number of paper brochures has significantly declined in recent years.

The reasons for this decline are diverse:

• Rising paper prices
• A growing awareness of sustainability
• Increasing taxes in Belgium
• The further expansion of the "yes-yes" sticker
• The (assumed) impossibility of measuring impact

Yet, the paper leaflet will still remain an important marketing tool in 2024. Smarter distribution - whether retailers choose to reduce or improve it - will increasingly be driven by data. Company  data, open data, and insights into consumer behavior will be combined to make informed decisions. With one goal: to generate more impact despite a smaller circulation of leaflets.

^‍

In summary, fewer leaflets will be distributed, but the impact and visibility of the remaining ones will increase. Therefore, brochure optimization becomes the main focus.

^{6. Na jaren groei van Hornbach trekken andere spelers aan de rem}

De afgelopen jaren is er ook in de doe-het-zelf wereld veel gebeurd. Was het niet door de uitzonderlijke rol die men speelde tijdens de Corona-pandemie, dan was het wel door het succes van online pure players als sanitairwinkel.nl en verfwinkel.nl. Een van de spelers die zich in dit speelveld extreem heeft onderscheiden is Hornbach. De relatief nieuwe speler, die inmiddels ruim 25 jaar in het Nederlandse landschap aanwezig is, blijft de laatste jaren maar winnen.   het inspirerende verhaal van Joost de Beijer over de drie pijlers van het nieuwe retailmodel van Intergamma.

‍Onze voorspelling voor 2024 is wellicht verrassend en enigszins gedurfd, maar we verwachten een vertraging in de groei van Hornbach in het komende jaar. Deze prognose wordt gesteund door de nieuwsberichten rondom de andere DIY’ers en bijvoorbeeld het inspirerende verhaal van Joost de Beijer over de drie pijlers van het nieuwe retailmodel van Intergamma, gepresenteerd tijdens RetailTrend Live. Het succes van Hornbach heeft de concurrentie geïnspireerd om niet passief toe te kijken. We verwachten dat Gamma, Karwei, Praxis en andere marktspelers met nieuwe concepten en strategieën naar voren komen, wat resulteert in een uitdaging voor Hornbach en uiteindelijk tot een vertraging van hun voorgaande succes.

^{7 Jojo-beweging in de winkelstraten: hogere hoogtes en lagere laagtes}

De Coronacrisis heeft de winkelstraten veranderd. Ondanks de gekende daling van het aantal bezoekers, zijn er ook positieve ontwikkelingen.

Steden en handelaars investeren in het aantrekkelijker maken van de winkelstraten of organiseren evenementen om bezoekers te lokken, met succes! Deze inspanningen leiden tot een jojo-beweging: in rustige periodes is het aantal bezoekers lager dan voorheen, maar in drukke periodes is het juist hoger.

In rustige periodes zien we een trend waarbij consumenten online winkelen. Voor speciale gelegenheden, zoals de feestdagen, komen ze toch naar de winkelstraten. De georganiseerde evenementen creëren op deze manier extra, unieke gelegenheden waardoor de nieuwsgierigheid wordt gewekt en mensen zich naar de fysieke winkel begeven. 

^{8 . Cigarette ban makes part of visitors go up in smoke for supermarkets}

On July 1, 2024, the cigarette ban in supermarkets will go into effect in Belgium and the Netherlands.

In addition to discouraging smoking, the smoking ban will affect consumer shopping behavior. Smokers will seek alternative outlets, such as gas stations or night stores.

Later this year, we will publish a detailed analysis examining the impact of the smoking ban on several supermarkets, including Lidl (discontinued in 2021) and Albert Heijn (discontinued as of January 2024). We will evaluate the strategies of supermarkets that have previously stopped selling cigarettes and how these changes have affected the customer base.

We expect that the cigarette ban in supermarkets will lead to a limited decrease in customer numbers. This is partly because some supermarkets may, for example, open a tobacco store next to their own store to accommodate traffic anyway or find other alternatives to mitigate the damage.

^{9 . Fashion stores definitely going out of style by 2024}

Some fashion trends are timeless, but the stores themselves, unfortunately, are not. Traditional clothing stores have been clashing with major online retailers for years. Fast fashion and online shopping continue to grow, which is not getting into the heads of traditional clothing stores.

If we keep in mind the yo-yo movement of the shopping streets, the increasing food options in shopping streets and the decreasing number of stores, we can predict that 2024 could be tough for traditional clothing stores.

Some retailers are still trying to find a way around this, for example by capitalizing on the "experience" to keep their stores relevant. Unfortunately, the convenience of online shopping usually still wins the day over the classic fitting room.

Thus, we expect the number of fashion retailers to continue to decline.

^{10. Green Friday slows the growth of Black Friday}

By 2024, Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year, is expected to lose ground to Green Friday. Despite annual growth during Black Friday, we expect this growth to be lower for the first time this year.

Green Friday is an emerging movement where consumers are more conscious about their purchases, focusing on sustainability and reducing their carbon footprint. The idea is that consumers are less in need of a traditional shopping day and more inclined to make sustainable choices.

Several brands are participating in Green Friday by, for example, closing their physical stores on Black Friday (such as Dille and Kamille and Wondr), promoting ecological initiatives and encouraging influencers to promote sustainable purchases.

An inspiring example comes from Canadian brand Tentree, which sells clothing made from recycled materials. On Green Friday, Tentree plants 10 trees for every purchase.

We expect that stores in Belgium and the Netherlands will also pay more attention to Green Friday. By working together for a more sustainable future, we can all make a difference, the thinking goes.

Conclusion

In 2024, retailers face significant challenges, ranging from the need to adapt to changing consumer trends to  growing competition and increasing pressure to operate more sustainably.

At Accurat, we strive for in-depth insights and accurate predictions. That is why we will analyze one of these 10 predications each month, using our own in-house data. This will not only keep our finger on the pulse of evolving retail trends, but also provide valuable insights that can help retailers effectively adapt to changing market conditions.‍