Lidl gains ground while Albert Heijn loses momentum as oil prices affect Dutch grocery retail
After publishing our German analysis — later picked up by Handelsblatt — similar behavioural signals are now emerging in the Dutch grocery market.
Following rising oil and gas prices after the conflict with Iran, Dutch consumers also appear to be adjusting grocery shopping patterns. Fuel prices reacted immediately, while concerns around inflation and household budgets quickly returned to public debate.
Accurat analysed supermarket visits in the Netherlands between week 6 and week 13 of 2026, comparing the period before and after the first energy price shock. The latest results were available just two days after week 13 ended, illustrating how quickly behavioural shifts can now be detected through location-based market intelligence.
The first visible signal is that discount formats gain relevance, while supermarket banners positioned more in the medium to medium-high price segment lose part of their momentum.
Lidl gains share, Albert Heijn records the clearest decline
At national level, Lidl emerges as the clearest winner in the Dutch market over the analysed period.
Between week 6 and week 13, Lidl steadily increased its share of visits, while Albert Heijn recorded the clearest decline. ALDI also improved slightly, PLUS showed a modest downward trend, and Jumbo remained broadly stable over the same period.
The contrast is structurally meaningful because Lidl and ALDI represent the main discount formats in the Dutch market, while Albert Heijn, Jumbo and PLUS operate in the medium to medium-high price segment.
Unlike Germany, where the Aldi banners drove most of the movement, the Dutch market currently shows the strongest momentum around Lidl.
Visit transfer confirms movement away from Albert Heijn
Visit transfer between February and March confirms the same direction.
The strongest visitor movements towards Lidl came from Albert Heijn, PLUS and Dirk. ALDI also gained visitors from Albert Heijn.
This indicates that part of the market movement reflects direct switching between established supermarket banners, with Albert Heijn losing visitors to both discount formats.
Across the larger supermarket groups, Lidl captures the strongest competitive gains during the period.
Southern Netherlands shows the strongest shift
Regional differences show that the shift is visible across the country, but strongest in South Netherlands, where Lidl gained most share and Albert Heijn recorded its largest decline.
In North Netherlands, East Netherlands and West Netherlands, the same direction remains visible, although less pronounced.
A similar pattern appears across Dutch welfare classes (welstandsklassen), which segment households by socio-economic profile.
The strongest decline for Albert Heijn appears in W5, the welfare class representing the lowest socio-economic profile, while Lidl gains across every welfare group.
This suggests that price sensitivity is strongest in lower socio-economic groups, while still visible across all welfare classes.
Growth comes mainly from more visitors, not more frequent visits
Average visit frequency changed only marginally between February and March.
The stronger signal comes from fraction of visitors, which shows how many individual shoppers visited a retailer during the period, regardless of how often they returned.
Here, Lidl gained strongly, while Albert Heijn saw a clear decline in unique visitor reach. ALDI also increased its visitor base.
This suggests that the current shift is primarily driven by additional shoppers entering discount formats, rather than existing customers visiting more often.
What we see in both Germany and the Netherlands is how quickly macro-economic pressure can become visible in daily grocery routines. The interesting difference is that each market has its own winner: in Germany Aldi moved first, while in the Netherlands Lidl currently captures the strongest momentum.
What this means for Dutch grocery competition
Three structural observations stand out:
- Lidl currently captures the strongest growth momentum
- Albert Heijn loses both share and visitor reach
- Discount formats gain relevance across regions and socio-economic groups
The Dutch results reinforce what already became visible in Germany: rising energy prices may translate into measurable grocery behaviour much faster than many retailers expect.